KATHMANDU: Four former prime ministers are locked in direct electoral contests in Nepal’s House of Representatives election scheduled for Falgun 21. The high-profile candidates are Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, Madhav Kumar Nepal, KP Sharma Oli, and Dr Baburam Bhattarai, a rare political moment reflecting both continuity and change in Nepal’s power dynamics.
While some are contesting from lon -held strongholds, others face uncertain prospects amid a shifting political landscape following the Gen Z-led protests of Bhadra 23–24, which analysts say have altered voter behaviour and political equations.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’: A Relatively Safe Bet
Prachanda, who has frequently changed constituencies in past elections, is contesting this time from Rukum East, a region long regarded as the heartland of the Maoist movement.
Since 2006, Maoist candidates have consistently secured victories in the constituency. With a smaller electorate, strong organisational backing, and Prachanda’s personal influence, his victory is widely seen as likely. Local acceptance and historical loyalty further strengthen his position, making Rukum East one of the safest seats among the four former prime ministers.
Madhav Kumar Nepal: A Tough Road Without Alliances
Former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal is seeking re-election from Rautahat–1, a constituency where he previously benefited from alliance support.
This time, however, Nepal is largely dependent on his party’s own vote base. The presence of strong contenders from the CPN-UML, Nepali Congress, and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has made the race highly competitive. Based on past results, analysts say securing victory without alliance backing will be challenging.
That said, some local observers believe Nepal’s stature as a former prime minister and his long-standing engagement in Madhes politics could still help generate favourable momentum.
KP Sharma Oli: Fighting to Protect a Political Legacy
CPN-UML chair KP Sharma Oli is contesting from Jhapa for the sixth time. He has previously won from the district in 2048, 2051, 2056, 2070, 2074, and 2079, suffering defeat only once in 2064.
This election, however, presents a new challenge. Former Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah is contesting against Oli under the banner of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, significantly raising the stakes. With additional candidates from the Nepali Congress, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and other groups, the likelihood of vote splitting is high.
The absence of electoral alliances and Balen Shah’s growing popularity suggest that Oli’s path to victory may be far from straightforward.
Baburam Bhattarai: An Uphill Battle
Dr Baburam Bhattarai entered the race late, filing his candidacy from Gorkha–2, a constituency where he once enjoyed strong public support.
The current scenario, however, is markedly different. The seat has become a battleground with candidates from the RSP, CPN-UML, Nepali Congress, and CPN all vying for victory. Bhattarai’s weakened organisational structure adds to his challenges.
Political observers note that competition from young CPN leader Lekhnath Neupane could prove particularly costly for Bhattarai, making this one of the most difficult contests among the four former prime ministers.
As Nepal heads towards polling day, the contrasting fortunes of these veteran leaders underscore a broader political transition where legacy, organization, and public sentiment will all play decisive roles.
